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The Project Probability of Loss (PoL) scoring logic is designed to produce a consistent, transparent, and comparable risk signal across a highly heterogeneous crypto market. To achieve this, the model combines strict rule-based evaluation with limited, well-defined flexibility, ensuring that the score remains both objective and context-aware.
The scoring framework is composed of two independent modules, each addressing a distinct dimension of risk assessment. Together, these modules ensure that no single perspective—technical, economic, or contextual—can disproportionately distort the final PoL outcome.

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Scoring module 1: baseline crypto project risk assessment

The first scoring module establishes the baseline risk profile of a project. It evaluates each project using a standardized set of digital asset risk metrics that can be applied universally across the crypto ecosystem. This module includes:
  • A core set of general metrics applicable to all crypto projects, regardless of size, maturity, or sector.
  • A contextual extension layer, where additional metrics from the broader methodology are automatically applied based on the project’s structural characteristics.
Applied to projects with native tokens — covering inflation dynamics, circulating supply, unlock schedules, and liquidity depth.
Applied to ecosystems hosting third-party applications — covering TVL quality, composability risk, and ecosystem health.
Applied to protocols providing foundational services — covering uptime, dependency chains, and validator/node distribution.
The purpose of this module is to ensure comparability and consistency. Every project is assessed against the same baseline expectations, while still accounting for structural differences that materially affect risk. This layer forms the foundation of the PoL score and is fully rules-based and deterministic.
Each project will be assessed based on its category and specific characteristics, with an appropriate set of metrics applied to produce the final PoL score. This approach ensures the assessment remains objective while properly accounting for the project’s unique specifications.

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Scoring module 2: contextual adjustment for crypto asset rating accuracy

The second scoring module introduces controlled flexibility into the final PoL score. It exists to address a known limitation of purely static models: the inability to fairly represent projects that materially outperform—or fundamentally differ from—the median of their category.
This module consists of two mutually exclusive components, only one of which may be applied at any given time.

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Scale adjustment

The Scale Adjustment option evaluates a project’s relative maturity, adoption, and market significance. It is designed to provide a small, transparent uplift for projects that demonstrate sustained performance at scale. This adjustment is based exclusively on:
  • Objective, empirical metrics
  • Cross-category and intra-category benchmarks
  • Demonstrated market traction rather than narrative positioning
When applied, the adjustment reflects the reduced likelihood of certain operational and liquidity-driven loss events commonly associated with early-stage or low-adoption projects. The magnitude of this adjustment is intentionally limited to preserve score integrity and prevent dominance by size alone.